Probably Overthinking It#

This site contains the Jupyter notebooks I used in my preparation of Probably Overthinking It: How to Use Data to Answer Questions, Avoid Statistical Traps, and Make Better Decisions.

If you’ve read the book and you want to know how the analysis works, this is the place. And if you read these notebooks, and you want to get the book, start here to see your options.

Before you read these notebooks, please keep in mind:

  • There is some explanatory text in the notebooks, but some of the examples will not make sense until you have read the corresponding chapter in the book.

  • While preparing these notebooks, I made some changes to improve the readability of the code. There might be small differences between what appears in the book and what you get when you run the code.

Chapter 1: Are You Normal? Hint: No.

Run the code on Colab

Run the code that prepares the BRFSS data

Run the code that prepares the Big Five data

Chapter 2: Relay Races and Revolving Doors

Run the code on Colab

Chapter 3: Defy Tradition, Save the World

Run the code on Colab

Chapter 4: Extremes, Outliers, and GOATs

Run the code on Colab

Run the code that prepares the BRFSS data

Run the code that prepares the NSFG data

Chapter 5: Bettter Than New

Run the code on Colab

Chapter 6: Jumping to Conclusions

Run the code on Colab

Chapter 7: Causation, Collision, and Confusion

Run the code on Colab

Run the code that prepares the NCHS data

Chapter 8: The Long Tail of Disaster

Run the code on Colab

Run the code that prepares the earthquake data

Run the code that prepares the solar flare data

Chapter 9: Fairness and Fallacy

Run the code on Colab

Chapter 10: Penguins, Pessimists, and Paradoxes

Run the code on Colab

Run the code that prepares the GSS data

Chapter 11: Changing Hearts and Minds

Run the code on Colab

Chapter 12: Chasing the Overton Window

Run the code on Colab