Probably Overthinking It: Companion Notebooks

Contents

Probably Overthinking It: Companion Notebooks#

This site contains the Jupyter notebooks I used in my preparation of Probably Overthinking It: How to Use Data to Answer Questions, Avoid Statistical Traps, and Make Better Decisions.

If you’ve read the book and you want to know how the analysis works, this is the place. And if you read these notebooks, and you want to get the book, you can order from Bookshop.org and Amazon (affiliate links).

If you like Probably Overthinking It, you’ll like my book in progress, You Would Choose Now, which uses decades of survey data to track changing attitudes in the United States. The early access edition is available now.

Chapters#

While preparing these notebooks, I made some changes to improve the readability of the code. There might be small differences between what appears in the book and what you get when you run the code.

Chapter 1: Are You Normal? Hint: No.

Run the code on Colab

Run the code that prepares the BRFSS data

Run the code that prepares the Big Five data

Chapter 2: Relay Races and Revolving Doors

Run the code on Colab

Chapter 3: Defy Tradition, Save the World

Run the code on Colab

Chapter 4: Extremes, Outliers, and GOATs

Run the code on Colab

Run the code that prepares the BRFSS data

Run the code that prepares the NSFG data

Chapter 5: Better Than New

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Chapter 6: Jumping to Conclusions

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Chapter 7: Causation, Collision, and Confusion

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Run the code that prepares the NCHS data

Chapter 8: The Long Tail of Disaster

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Run the code that prepares the earthquake data

Run the code that prepares the solar flare data

Chapter 9: Fairness and Fallacy

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Chapter 10: Penguins, Pessimists, and Paradoxes

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Run the code that prepares the GSS data

Chapter 11: Changing Hearts and Minds

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Chapter 12: Chasing the Overton Window

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Examples#

These notebooks are not tied to a single chapter; they explore topics from the book and related questions.

The Principal Components of Anthropometry

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Chile Earthquake Magnitudes

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Greatest GOAT of All Time?

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Is the Ideology Gap Growing?

Run on Colab

Are you middle-aged?

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Power law? Or just a guideline?

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The Girl Named Florida

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Field Sobriety Tests and the Base Rate Fallacy

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The Distribution of U.S. Firm Sizes

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The Distribution of U.S. Firm Revenue

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The Distribution of French Firm Sizes

Run on Colab